The short answer
As of June 2026, the $250 bill has not been released and there is no fixed release date. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed Treasury "prepared things in advance" in case Congress acts, but H.R.1761 — the legislation that would authorize the bill — remains in committee with no recorded floor action. Multiple outlets reporting on the May 28, 2026 Treasury briefing made the same point: nothing prints without congressional action.
The prediction market Polymarket currently assigns roughly 9% probability to a $250 bill being issued this year. That number reflects the procedural barriers more than any specific Treasury timeline.
What would actually have to happen
Five things, in order:
1. House Financial Services Committee markup. H.R.1761 was referred to the committee on the day it was introduced (February 27, 2025) and has not received a hearing or markup since.
2. Full House vote. Even after a markup, the bill would need to pass the House.
3. Senate companion legislation. No senator has introduced parallel legislation. The Senate would need to take up the bill or pass its own.
4. Presidential signature. Routine assuming the bill reaches Trump's desk.
5. Design, engraving, and production. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing's own bill states "Not later than 1 year after the date of the enactment" — so even after a signed law, real notes take up to a year to enter circulation.
What Treasury has actually said
Bessent's exact words at the May 28 briefing: "At Treasury we prepare things in advance, so we have prepared in advance that if the legislation is passed. But we will stick to the law." That last clause matters — it explicitly conditions any printing on congressional action.
A Treasury spokesperson separately told reporters the Bureau of Engraving and Printing "is conducting appropriate planning and due diligence" and is "moving proactively to produce a $250 commemorative note" in case the legislation becomes law. Again, conditional.
Why the Polymarket odds are so low
The market priced "Yes" at roughly 9% as of mid-June 2026 with about $13.9K in trading volume since launch on May 28. Three reasons traders give for the low number:
The bill is stalled. No hearing, no markup, no Senate companion. Bills that pass typically show committee movement within months of introduction; H.R.1761 has shown none in 16 months.
Partisan resistance. The bill has zero Democratic cosponsors. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly called it a "hard no." Even if it cleared committee, Senate passage would require working through partisan opposition.
Production lead time. Even after enactment, the bill's own one-year production window means a "released in 2026" outcome would require enactment by roughly mid-summer at the latest, which is procedurally unlikely.
The honest bottom line
The $250 bill is real as a proposal, real as a Treasury design preparation, and real as the subject of active congressional legislation. It is not real as circulating currency, and the available evidence suggests it is unlikely to become circulating currency in 2026. Anyone telling you a specific release date is guessing.